Every projection on this site is frozen at kickoff, then scored against what actually happened. For live weeks, Sleeper's projection is taken as it stood before kickoff too, so both are judged on the same information. Nothing here is edited after the fact.
Sleeper's numbers from before kickoff were not saved for weeks 1 and 2 of 2026, so those weeks are not compared.
Live weeks vs SleeperBeat Sleeper at 3 of 6 positionsLower average miss on the same players. Won 1 of 1 live weeks (week 3).
QB↓: higher miss or tieRB↑: lower missWR↑: lower missTE↓: higher miss or tieK↓: higher miss or tieDST↑: lower miss
Our average miss4.63points per player, all positions, season to date
Ranges that held81%of results landed inside our floor to ceiling. Target is about 80% (75 to 85%).
Leaderboard: average miss by position
Lower is better. Best in each column is green. Players judged: top 24 QB, 48 RB, 60 WR, 24 TE, every K and DST
#
Source
All
QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DST
Ranking accuracy
Weeks won
1
Volt
Data obtained from FantasyPros
VF
4.63
5.91
4.27
4.31
5.64
4.49
4.19
0.17
1 of 1
2
SLSleeper
4.79
5.77
4.69
4.69
5.56
4.23
4.30
0.18
0 of 1
1VFVoltAll4.63
QB5.91RB4.27WR4.31TE5.64K4.49DST4.19
Ranking accuracy0.17Weeks won 1 of 1
2SLSleeperAll4.79
QB5.77RB4.69WR4.69TE5.56K4.23DST4.30
Ranking accuracy0.18Weeks won 0 of 1
Average miss by week
All positions, half-PPR
VoltSleeper
Do our ranges hold?
QB83%
RB92%
WR86%
TE71%
K76%
DST79%
All81%
How often the actual score landed between our floor and ceiling. The gray tick is the goal (80%); 75 to 85% is about right, and amber marks a share outside that. Too low means our ranges are too narrow; too high means they are too wide to be useful.
Week 3: biggest hits and misses
We show both. Misses teach us more.
Player
We said
Sleeper
Actual
Result
WRNico Collins
0.0
11.9
0.0
Closer than Sleeper
RBJonathan Taylor
13.5
18.4
8.2
Closer than Sleeper
RBTreVeyon Henderson
6.7
11.5
3.4
Closer than Sleeper
QBSam Darnold
13.9
17.0
29.7
Missed by 15.7
WRJaxon Smith-Njigba
14.9
18.6
30.4
Missed by 15.4
TEGeorge Kittle
7.9
10.1
23.2
Missed by 15.3
WRNico CollinsCloser than Sleeper
We said 0.0·Sleeper 11.9·Actual 0.0
RBJonathan TaylorCloser than Sleeper
We said 13.5·Sleeper 18.4·Actual 8.2
RBTreVeyon HendersonCloser than Sleeper
We said 6.7·Sleeper 11.5·Actual 3.4
QBSam DarnoldMissed by 15.7
We said 13.9·Sleeper 17.0·Actual 29.7
WRJaxon Smith-NjigbaMissed by 15.4
Locked weeks archive
Week 316 games graded
Beat Sleeper 3 of 6
Week 216 games graded
Beat Sleeper 0 of 0
Week 116 games graded
Beat Sleeper 0 of 0
How we keep score
1Lock at kickoffEach game's projections freeze when it kicks off. In live weeks Sleeper's projection is taken as it stood before kickoff too.
2Score after the gameOfficial stats come in and every projection is scored in half-PPR.
3Judge the players who matteredEach week we grade the top 24 QBs, 48 RBs, 60 WRs and 24 TEs, ranked by the average of our projection and Sleeper's before kickoff, plus every kicker and defense that played. Both are judged on the same players, chosen before the games.
4Publish everythingWins, losses and the raw numbers. The backtest tab shows how the same model did on past seasons.